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Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 10

Mississippi State has been so bad (and other news)

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Kentucky v Mississippi State Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images

For data definitions and disclaimers, take a look at my rundown in the first article in this series: Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 1

SEC Week 10 Success Rates

Rank Game Result SR -- Opp SR ---
Rank Game Result SR -- Opp SR ---
1 Tennessee vs. Connecticut W 59-3 62% |||||||||||| 41% ||||||||
2 Alabama vs. LSU W 42-28 54% |||||||||| 51% ||||||||||
3 Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M W 38-35 52% |||||||||| 50% ||||||||||
4 LSU @ Alabama L 28-42 51% |||||||||| 54% ||||||||||
5 Texas A&M @ Ole Miss L 35-38 50% |||||||||| 52% ||||||||||
6 South Carolina vs. Jacksonville State W 38-28 47% |||||||||| 42% ||||||||
7 Missouri @ Georgia L 21-30 44% |||||||| 39% ||||||||
8 Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State L 24-27 42% |||||||| 43% ||||||||
9 Texas vs. Kansas State W 33-30 39% |||||||| 37% ||||||||
10 Georgia vs. Missouri W 30-21 39% |||||||| 44% ||||||||
11 Arkansas @ Florida W 39-36 38% |||||||| 37% ||||||||
12 Florida vs. Arkansas L 36-39 37% |||||||| 38% ||||||||
13 Kentucky @ Miss State W 24-3 36% |||||||| 33% ||||||
14 Miss State vs. Kentucky L 3-24 33% |||||| 36% ||||||||
15 Auburn @ Vanderbilt W 31-15 30% |||||| 26% ||||||
16 Vanderbilt vs. Auburn L 15-31 26% |||||| 30% ||||||

It was hard to know who to highlight in the image this week — oh, a Tennessee squad that racked up stats against UConn? No thanks. — so I just went with a team that has had an, um, outstanding performance in the last several weeks in these tables. Mississippi State has been so bad in both of these charts for big chunks of the year, which is disappointing for an SEC-W “also ran” that used to, you know, “almost run” (instead of just laying down).

  • Yes, Auburn and Vandy did both deliver lower SRs than Mississippi State this week — these teams all have terrible offenses — but just wait til you see the explosiveness chart!
  • Alabama wasn’t profoundly efficient against LSU, at a 54% SR, but this week in the SEC that turns out to be a relatively high number. LSU nearly matched it, too, at 51%.
  • Ole Miss and Texas A&M also had something of a boatrace on their hands, hence the high positions in this table.
  • Mizzou at Georgia was a close one, but perhaps fielded better defenses (or worse offenses?) to give more middling efficiency numbers. Same for Oklahoma and Texas (with a loss, then a near loss, respectively).
  • Arkansas wasn’t efficient — Florida matched them, which makes sense in a game that went to OT — but they sure won.

SEC Week 10 Explosiveness (isoPPP)

Rank Game Result Explos. -- Opp Explos. ---
Rank Game Result Explos. -- Opp Explos. ---
1 Tennessee vs. Connecticut W 59-3 1.91 ||||||||||||||| 1.29 |||||||||
2 Auburn @ Vanderbilt W 31-15 1.85 ||||||||||||||| 1.72 |||||||||||||
3 Vanderbilt vs. Auburn L 15-31 1.72 ||||||||||||| 1.85 |||||||||||||||
4 Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State L 24-27 1.59 ||||||||||| 1.24 |||||||||
5 Texas vs. Kansas State W 33-30 1.49 ||||||||||| 1.29 |||||||||
6 Georgia vs. Missouri W 30-21 1.48 ||||||||||| 1.32 |||||||||
7 Florida vs. Arkansas L 36-39 1.47 ||||||||||| 1.38 |||||||||
8 Alabama vs. LSU W 42-28 1.39 ||||||||| 1.31 |||||||||
9 Arkansas @ Florida W 39-36 1.38 ||||||||| 1.47 |||||||||||
10 South Carolina vs. Jacksonville State W 38-28 1.32 ||||||||| 1.13 |||||||
11 Missouri @ Georgia L 21-30 1.32 ||||||||| 1.48 |||||||||||
12 LSU @ Alabama L 28-42 1.31 ||||||||| 1.39 |||||||||
13 Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M W 38-35 1.28 ||||||||| 1.21 |||||||||
14 Kentucky @ Miss State W 24-3 1.27 ||||||||| 0.88 |||||
15 Texas A&M @ Ole Miss L 35-38 1.21 ||||||||| 1.28 |||||||||
16 Miss State vs. Kentucky L 3-24 0.88 ||||| 1.27 |||||||||

And there’s the kicker for Mississippi State: being below 1.0 in isoPPP is so bad, and the Cowbells have gotten below 0.9 isoPPP twice in the last three weeks (this week, and week 8) .

In other news:

  • Alabama and LSU weren’t as high in isoPPP as I thought they’d be in watching this shootout. I suppose when both teams are also efficient, it tends to water down the isoPPP a little bit.
  • Georgia was more explosive than efficient, which is a seesaw they’ve been on both sides of in different weeks this season
  • Vandy does it’s usual “inefficiency inversion” thing where they look artificially explosive even though they’re so, so bad. But this week, Auburn joined them in enjoying the same effect!
  • Oklahoma was efficient again this week, which looks more familiar to the Oklahoma of recent past. Though, they lost! Which is the opposite and is great fun.
  • Yes, in both of these charts, Tennessee statistically leads them after beating up on UConn. Great job, Volunteers, truly.

Roll Tide! It’s nice to see Alabama back in this table. See you next week.

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