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Giving Away Money: 2023 Bowl Season Week 1

Vegas has your money this bowl season; are you man enough to take it from them?

Week 13: 4-2
Season: 47-32-3

Told ya’

For the first time in a long time, most UGA fans are mindful of playing a healthy team that is a peer adversary. And they should be. These two are very, very close. The data are what they are, but Alabama can win this game with a +1 TOM — cover, at the least

Boom, MFer.

What on Earth?

The data here aren’t cute or hidden. Oregon is simply better. Better offense. Better defense. Better ball security. Better coached. Better talent.

I still think that’s generally true...except the coaching part. And defense. And offense. And ball security. Even talent.

This Ducks team is softer than baby shit and spent a month having smoke blown up their ass by the media until they believed it. Never get high off your own supply.


Welcome to Bowl Season Week 1 of 2023’s Giving Away Money.

Huge caveats with these data of late in bowls: opt-outs have killed a great deal of predictive power. We’ve had decent luck (near 60%), but in general, the bigger the bowl, the fewer the opt-outs, the better the predictive power of the modeling.

We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.

For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.

For current odds, check those out here.


With it being bowl season, we’re only cover three a week over here: One we like, an underdog to consider, and one to absolutely avoid at all costs

Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.


Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:

Western Kentucky +2.5 vs. Old Dominion

Wanna see who the Tops are losing for the Bowl game?

  • Caden Veltkamp, QB (Transfer portal)
  • Quantavious Leslie, IOL (Transfer portal)
  • TJ Springer, CB (Transfer portal)
  • Nolan Mccord, K (Transfer portal)
  • Desmyn Baker, LB (Transfer portal)
  • Wes Dorsey, OT (Transfer portal)
  • Abdul-Lateef Audu, CB (Transfer portal)
  • Vincent Murphy, IOL (Transfer portal)
  • Upton Stout, CB (Transfer portal)
  • Mason Williams, IOL (Transfer portal)
  • Josh Shodipo, CB (Transfer portal)

In case you don’t know who those are, it’s 4 of the 5 starters along the OL and the two best defenders. There’s absolutely nothing I can do with these data with that many losses.

With opt-outs? Hell if I know. Stay well away; this is gambling chlamydia. Or don’t...I’m not your real dad.

WITHOUT opt-outs, it’s WKU -6.523. But, you can’t lose 15 guys and expect some quality number-cranking here...and I might even be inclined to bet on the Monarchs.


One We Like:

Miami OH +5.5 vs App. State

Congratulations Redhawks, and your Groza thief of a kicker.

Your reward for squeaking through the MAC with an ungodly six wins decided by less than a TD is the SBC team that, by season’s end, was playing better than anyone. Including champion Troy. The ‘Eers are just on another level talent-wise and playing far better.

App State isn’t great as a fave, but they’re better than the 1-3 MI-OH has been as a dog. And they secure the ball a lot better too. If ASU shows up, they win. That simple.

ASU -6.62, but probably not as much as it ought to be. (Season-long algo is almost a TD, back-half is close to 11 points).

BONUS: There’s just one opt-out, a backup LB for the ‘Eers


Underdog With Bite

Ohio +3.5 vs Ga. Southern

This one really is about TOs. When GSU wins the plus/minus battle, they’re 5-1. When they lose it, 1-5. The problem is, they’ve lost the turnover battle against almost every team with a winning record they’ve played. They outlier was a TO-free game. Ohio is very good at forcing them. And they don’t turn it over much either. They’ve only lost the TO battle three times, and just once in the last six weeks — MAC champion MIOH.

The MAC has a penchant for showing up in bowls no one wants to play in, and this team in particular plays an ugly, close style of football that will keep the ball away from GSU DBs.

No need to reinvent the wheel here; the Bobcats are 3-1 ATS as a Dog for a reason. Southern has been respectable as a fave (5-3), but that doesn’t change those ghastly 26 TOs and who ought to be a slight favorite,

Ohio -.18

<p zoompage-fontsize="15" style="">NCAA Football: Old Dominion at Marshall

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Poll

Whiniest fan base?

This poll is closed

  • 51%
    Florida State
    (178 votes)
  • 48%
    Michigan Fan allegedly offended for the Seminoles?
    (169 votes)
347 votes total Vote Now

Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month. Far cheaper than a divorce attorney when your wife leaves you for being a bad gambler.