Week Two: 3-2
Mortal Lock: Sr. QB at home, with an intact system, a good OL and superior athleticism. If the Panthers front seven can hold up, get some stops on the ground, and then force Pagano to go to the air, they’ll win that mismatch. Then GSU can get a needed W at home. Numbers suggest they will, but this is going to be a dog (and cat) fight. Elliot’s home record as a fave is outstanding: 4-2-1. That’s worth putting your neck out for.
What on Earth?
You know our rule. We’re betting against Kent State every game this year, no matter what the data may say. Take the Hogs. Edit: Good call anyway.
Spoiler: Arkansas is in trouble.
Welcome to a Week Three of 2023’s Giving Away Money.
We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs. And, after just two weeks of data — about half against FCS body bags — the latter are going to be far more necessary than usual.
For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.
For current odds, check those out here.
Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.
Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.
Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:
OU -27.5 at Tulsa — This just inside the MOE. But I think I like this one anyway: me, personally, Erik; not GAM. The Sooners are really good. The Golden Hurricane are...not really good. I don’t care this one is away from Norman. That’s like a two hour drive — maybe less if you haul serious ass. The stands are gonna’ be crimson and cream. Take what you will on this one. Think I’ll take a chance on the Sooners though.
And, I should be perfectly clear again: the data say this game is going to be a W or L by about half a point, and you really should keep your wallet sheathed.
OU is projected by -28.513,
One We Like:
UGA -27.5 vs Sakerlina Kirby is a monster at home ATS vs. SEC teams, and especially against shitty ones — bowl game aside, USCe was not very good last season either, and they’re a lot worse this year. I’m sure Smart’s tired of hearing nattering about how UGA looks different this year; have the Dawgs fallen off?
Well, the Bulldogs can finally wake up and start the season. Numbers say they will. Long day for Rattler, even worse for very soft USC DL and OL lines.
One We Love:
LSU -9.5 at MSU
The Tigers are dominant OTR in Starkvegas. More troubling than trends is that Bully secondary which was repeatedly torched vertically by ‘Zona, and a passing game that seems underused. Not sure I trust BK OTR as a favorite. He was 0-fer last year and is just .500 in his career.
But this is an MSU team in transition, so let’s have faith in data.
An Underdog With Bite:
Virginia Tech +7 at Rutgers
No, that’s not a misprint. The Hokies are getting a full touchdown in Joisey. No, the Scarlet Knights are not expected to cover it. This game is going to be downright terrible...almost as bad as Viriginia Tech’s defense, and maybe worse than Purdue’s offense.
Still, numbers say to take the War Turkeys, and it’s well inside the MOE, so we will.
Hokies +3.85, in some ghastly 17-13 type monstrosity that will make Oedipus grow his eyes back, just so he can blind himself again.
Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time:
Alabama -32 at USF
Yup, it’s a huge line. But Alabama traditionally punishes midmajors. Couple that with the fact that everyone is playing (and coaching) for their job this week, and we’ll see a lot of people on the 2-deep who want a starting spot, hence a lot of effort. I suspect we won’t get the ole’ Nick Saban second half squatting on the ball. Probably a lot like the MTSU game, TBH.
I really like this game, and I don’t say that much about Tide contests.
Alabama -37.36 44-7ish?
FIU +7 at UConn
Someone had to be it: the worst team in CFB. And, here we are — tied with Nevada in terms of futility and suck, the FIU Panthers. That inures to the benefit of a home Huskies team who laid an egg last week against a very punishing GSU team. This team can make a bowl, but it needs to notch a Dub...badly.
UConn gets it this week with some efficient passing against the next-to-worst secondary in the country. Mora has been a beast in Storrs ATS too.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Just five bucks a month. Far cheaper than a divorce attorney when your wife leaves you for being a bad gambler.
The Tide gonna’ bounce back after looking like a Special Ed Pop Warner team and cover -32 in Tampa?
This poll is closed
Yeah, they’re mad. And everyone’s playing for their job.
Nah, they can be focused all they want to. This just doesn’t seem like a very Alabama-type team.